Ah, if only they understood the difference between herd immunity and herd immune pressure

Many experts and public health authorities appear to lack a clear understanding of the distinction between herd immunity towards viral infection and herd immune pressure on viral infectiousness. It's crucial to emphasize that SARS-CoV-2 (SC-2) has not yet become endemic, primarily because true herd immunity is absent.

It is disconcerting to observe a widespread belief within the scientific community, including academia, that highly C-19 vaccinated populations have attained herd immunity against SC-2, leading to the virus's transition into endemicity through 'hybrid' immunity. However, this concept of hybrid immunity is a product of misunderstanding how mass C-19 vaccination has contributed to the dominance of the Omicron variant, which subsequently caused a surge in vaccine breakthrough infections (VBTIs). These VBTIs initiated a cascade of immune refocusing events, initially generating broadly neutralizing antibodies [NAbs] (as detailed in my book ‘The inescapable immune escape pandemic’, mRNA vaccines elicit such broadly NAbs even in the absence of VBTIs).

Unfortunately, public health authorities and so-called 'experts' fail to grasp how immune refocusing primes broadly cross-reactive antibodies (Abs) with suboptimal neutralizing capacity. Erroneously, they attribute the observed reduction in viral shedding and protection from (severe) C-19 disease to a magic blend of supposedly synergizing infection- and vaccine-primed Abs (so-called ‘hybrid’ immunity).

It is equally astonishing that some (many?) scientists, vaccine experts, and even evolutionary biologists, believe the continuing emergence of more infectious immune escape variants merely results from the virus's attempt to overcome herd immunity. This notion contradicts the very definition of herd immunity, which involves a population-level immune response capable of curtailing viral transmission through sterilizing immunity. Herd immunity can only be achieved if NAbs collectively reach their full neutralizing capacity in the absence of infectious virus. This explains why immune escape variants do not naturally arise during a typical pandemic of an acute self-limiting viral infection (ASLVI). This is because the bulk of the viral load (in form of virus-infected cells) is eliminated before NAbs develop.

In the current C-19 pandemic, highly vaccinated populations face a continuous onslaught of immune escape variants, leading to what I refer to as an 'immune escape pandemic.' Contrary to those who pretend the virus will burn itself out, the ongoing evolution of new immune escape variants indicates otherwise. Updated variant S(pike)-directed vaccines are increasingly ineffective in mitigating, let alone controlling enhanced viral infectiousness as the latter is now determined by mechanisms that cannot be ‘neutralized’ by variant S-specific Abs.

As the immune selection pressure on viral infectiousness is now increasingly targeting variant S-nonspecific epitopes and epitopes outside the S region, currently circulating immune escape variants display a diversified spectrum of less commonly observed infection-enhancing mutations (e.g., S-associated mutations facilitating contact between S protein and ACE-2 receptor or enhancing interactions between the RBD (receptor-binding domain) and ACE2 receptor, or S-associated N-glycan mutations preventing opsonization by IgG4 Abs; mutations in other viral proteins enhancing efficiency of viral protein synthesis or increasing intracellular viral replication rate.

This has now become a predominant hallmark of newly emerging variants that are growing in prevalence due to these less commonly occurring genetic changes (e.g., BA.2.86 [Pirola] and EG.5 [Eris] and their offsprings, I.e., JN.1 and HV.1, respectively).

Many scientists still belief that vaccinees experiencing VBTI or receiving updated (mRNA) booster vaccination are capable of boosting serum virus-neutralizing Abs against these newly emerging variants. They don’t seem to realize that what they are looking at in their in vitro neutralization assays are ‘pseudo’neutralizing Abs that merely accelerate viral immune escape. ‘Pseudo’neutralization occurs when the once-neutralizing Abs are boosted due to VBTI caused by circulating variants that have largely evaded the protective NAbs induced by C-19 vaccines. Boosting results in a significant increase in the titer of these Abs, which therefore acquire the capacity to hinder viral infection by hydrophilizing virus-Ab complexes. However, due to their low binding affinity, especially after maturation into isotype-switched IgG4 Abs, these Abs will rapidly lose their infection-inhibiting (i.e., ‘pseudo’neutralizing) capacity, thereby exerting large-scale suboptimal immune pressure on viral infectiousness in highly C-19 vaccinated populations. This collective immune pressure contributes to the co-emergence and co-circulation of new immune escape variants, which are currently causing large-scale repeated VBTIs in highly C-19 vaccinated populations. The latter are mostly accompanied by (very) mild to moderate symptoms. However, VBTIs, by fostering immune refocusing, fuel the emergence of new, even more infectious immune escape variants. This has now resulted in a scenario where large, poorly solubilized/ hydrophilized virus-Ab aggregates undergo enhanced uptake into antigen-presenting cells (APCs), thereby triggering strong activation of cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs).

While strongly activated CTLs substantially reduce viral shedding, viral transmission persists due to a combined enhancement of intrinsic viral infectiousness and a higher incidence of mild/ asymptomatic infection (equally mediated via enhanced CTL activity). Under these circumstances, achieving herd immunity becomes unattainable. On the contrary, as described below, there is compelling evidence from virological, immunological, and clinical perspectives that this pandemic continues to evolve in a manner beyond control.

Quite some time ago, I stopped issuing repeated warnings about the detrimental consequences of the C- 19 mass vaccination program. I assumed that the outcomes would be so apparent that further investment of my time and energy in conveying such an unpleasant message would be unnecessary. However, faced with messages like those spread by Dr. Chris Smith, a clinical lecturer in Virology at the University of Cambridge, I find it impossible to remain silent (link)

The blatant ignorance displayed by the scientific community is beyond perplexing. While even laymen begin to recognize the complexity of this pandemic, many health experts and world-class conifers from academia still seem to believe that SC-2 is burning itself out!

Do they truly buy in into the incredibly simplistic and naïve narrative that the virus has now transitioned into endemicity and that we will have to live with the virus just as we do with seasonal (!) Influenza virus? Do they really think that yearly booster shots will stabilize the current epidemiological situation? Do they truly believe that the virus's failure to overcome suboptimal immune pressure explains the reduced spread of the virus and the substantial decrease in mortality and hospitalization rates due to Covid-19 compared to the beginning of the C-19 pandemic?

Contradictions emerge when considering all the noise surrounding the wave of white lung pneumonia in highly C-19 vaccinated countries, such as China, the Netherlands, the UK, the USA, and Danmark. How does one reconcile a virus supposedly burning out with an epidemic of white lung disease, especially among children?

Doesn’t the continued transmission and sustained emergence of multiple highly infectious variants, along with changes in clinical features, shorter incubation times, and altered disease durations, challenge the narrative of a virus transitioning into endemicity?

But also, the question of how the immune system of C-19 vaccine recipients can still prevent highly infectious immune escape variants from causing severe Covid-19 disease or even mitigate the disease down to asymptomatic or mild infection remains unanswered.

Additionally, why and how does the immune response in C-19 vaccine recipients shift from highly variant S- specific Abs to broadly cross-reactive anti-S antibodies and eventually to functionally monovalent IgG4 Abs with low binding affinity for the S protein?

Furthermore, what about the increased incidence of non-Covid-19-related diseases in highly C-19 vaccinated countries?

No single public authority or official health expert seems to be able to connect the dots between the virological, immunological, and clinical data or frame the evolutionary dynamics of these data in a way that makes scientific sense.

The truth of the matter is that enhanced activation of CTLs, mediated by the increased uptake of viral aggregates into APCs, not only facilitates asymptomatic transmission but also likely hampers virulence- inhibiting NNAbs from maintaining measurable titers due to a lack of boosting assistance by T helper cells.

It is reasonable to assume that a collective decrease in NNAb titers to suboptimal concentrations will promote the natural selection of SC-2 variants that are not only highly infectious but also virulent (and, therefore, ‘highly virulent’).

There can be no doubt that our health authorities are desperate and completely lost. Despite navigating without a compass, they refuse to seek help from competent and independent scientists. Instead, they continue to recommend booster vaccinations (with updated C-19 vaccines). Some of them, including the WHO, even support C-19 vaccination of young children, whereas no single childhood immunization program addressing ASLVIs is targeting viruses with animal reservoirs or employs replication-incompetent vaccines. Don't they understand that large-scale immunization programs targeting ASLVIs caused by viruses with an animal reservoir will only promote viral immune escape?

Of course, there are exceptions, as not all scientists are buying into the cheap narrative. However, if they don’t speak out, they don’t serve society either and merely continue to exploit the benefits of a system they don’t really believe in. There is a name for such people, but I will spare you that name!